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Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics
Multiple Authors
eBook Edition: 2008

This paper develops an analytical framework to study the econometric implications of fiscal foresight. Simple theoretical examples show that foresight produces equilibrium time series with a non-invertible moving average component, which misaligns the agents’ and the econometrician’s information sets in estimated VARs. Also offers a formal interpretation of the narrative approach to identifying fiscal policy.

eBook Contents

Introduction - Evidence of Fiscal Foresight - Analytical Example - The Econometrics of Foresight - Assessing the Ex-Post Approach - Assessing the Ex-Ante Approach - Concluding Remarks – References

eBook License: Copyrighted (Personal Use Only) 

Free PDF eBook - 413 Kb - 46 pages
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