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URL :  Stock Price Cycles and Business Cycles
Author : Klaus Adam - Sebastian Merkel
Detail : 
2019 | PDF | 680 Kb | 79 pages

eBook License: Public Access from https://scholar.princeton.edu/

We present a simple model that quantitatively replicates the behavior of stock prices and business cycles in the United States. The business cycle model is standard, except that it features extrapolative belief formation in the stock market, in line with the available survey evidence. Extrapolation amplifies the price effects of technology shocks and in response to a series of positive technology surprises gives rise to a large and persistent boom and bust cycle in stock prices.

Boom-bust dynamics are more likely when the risk-free interest rate is low because low rates strengthen belief-based amplification. Stock price cycles transmit into the real economy by generating inefficient price signals for the desirability of new investment. The model thus features a financial accelerator, despite the absence of financial frictions. The financial accelerator causes the economy to experience persistent periods of over and under accumulation of capital. (From Author)

eBook Contents

Introduction - Related Literature - Stock Prices and Business Cycles: Key Facts - Asset Pricing in a Production Economy - Subjective Price Optimism/Pessimism - Equilibrium Conditions and Financial Accelerator - Quantitative Model Performance - Boom-Bust Cycles and Belief-Driven Propagation - Technology Booms, Real Rates and Repeat Cycles - Additional Evidence on Model Performance - Welfare Implications of Belief-Driven Booms - Conclusions
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