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Time to ship during financial crises
Multiple Authors
eBook Edition: 2012
 
We show that the negative impact of financial crises on trade is magnified for destinations with longer time-to-ship. A simple model where exporters react to an increase in the probability of default of importers by increasing their export price and decreasing their export volumes to destinations in crisis is consistent with this empirical finding. For longer shipping time, those effects are indeed magnified as the probability of default increases as time passes. Some exporters also decide to stop exporting to the crisis destination, the more so the longer time-to-ship. Using aggregate data from 1950 to 2009, we find that this magnification effect is robust to alternative specifications, samples and inclusion of additional controls, including distance. The firm level predictions are also broadly consistent with French exporter data from 1995 to 2005.(From Author)

eBook Contents

Non-technical summary - Abstract - Résumé non technique - Résumé court - Introduction - Model - Time-to-ship and the effect of crises on trade: country-level evidence - Firm-level evidence - Conclusion - References - Appendix - List of working papers released by CEPII

eBook License: Copyrighted (Personal Use Only by downloading from CEPII)

Free PDF eBook - 488 Kb - 42 Pages
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